In this episode, Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Harry Campion-Evans from Onyx Markets, "Geek in the Seat" Research Associate Martha Dowding, Director of Benchmarking Jorge Montepeque, and Research Associate Will Cunliffe from The Officials. With crude prices spiking and time spreads surging after geopolitical escalation between Israel and Iran, the team explores whether this marks a structural shift or a short-lived frenzy.

Is the oil market bracing for sustained turmoil, or is the smart money already fading the move?

This week’s discussion dives into:

• Explosive rallies in Brent time spreads and front-month volatility: geopolitical panic or justified repricing?

• Illiquid options markets, call seller pain, and how market makers got caught

• Why retail investors are piling in—and why that may signal a top

• The Strait of Hormuz dilemma: real flow threats vs. diplomatic suicide

• Freight premiums, Dubai vs Brent pricing, and the resilience of global oil logistics

• Pump prices and retail backlash: UK wholesale dynamics, delayed pass-throughs, and what end-users can actually do

• Plus: refinery margins hit new highs, and which cracks and differentials traders are watching most closely for the next big move

Want to trade?

Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market. Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 17th June, 2025.

👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

👉 Get industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux

👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-re...

👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw

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CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

The Oil Market Blew Up: Iran-Israel & The Volatility Squeeze

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