In this episode, Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Harry Campion-Evans from Onyx Markets and Research Associate Mita Chaturvedi to decode the hidden signals driving oil markets higher as speculative capital surges back into crude - despite mixed macro sentiment and seasonal demand concerns.

Is this a genuine breakout or another false dawn?

This week’s discussion dives into:

• Brent and WTI futures breaking out: bullish momentum or overextended rally?

• Surge in refining utilisation and margin resilience - how long can it last?

• Why CTAs are backing off shorts and what that means for risk appetite

• The China puzzle: record crude inventories, heavy refinery turnarounds, and what to expect next

• OPEC underproduction, Saudi allocations, and the quiet game of signalling restraint

• Pump prices, U.S. gasoline demand weakness, and why refiners may be overproducing into a glut

• Plus: crack spreads, fuel oil strength, and whether the market is setting up for a Q3 reversal

As mentioned in the episode, our more technical content will be making the move to our Flux platform - which is free with an Onyx Markets account, offers free trials, and offers great value for traders. Learn more & sign up here: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux

Want to trade?

Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market. Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 10th June, 2025.

👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

👉 Get industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux

👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-re...

👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw

Follow us: https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup

CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

The Cracks Beneath the Rally: CTAs, Fuel Oil & the Refinery Time Bomb

Flux News