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The global economy looks to be posting trend-like growth in 1H25. How much of this is underlying resilience in a healthy expansion and how much is transitory front-loading set to reverse in 2H25 is central to the outlook. The data show resilience, notably in job growth, but cracks are growing in global industry. We maintain a baseline of no recession while also seeing risks elevated at 40%.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 6 June 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www

Global Data Pod Weekender: Identification in the time of front-loading

Global Data Pod