I am joined by Yuriy Humber, founder of Japan NRG, to discuss Japan’s complex relationship with nuclear technology and its energy issues past and present. The first and only wartime victim of atomic weapons, it went on to embrace nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, becoming a world leader in the manufacture of nuclear technology and relying on it for 30% of its electricity before turning against nuclear after the Fukushima accident in 2011. Public opinions against nuclear energy ran as high as 80% at one point.

A decade on and with new commitments to reducing emissions, public opposition is turning, and the government wants to revive nuclear power to improve Japan’s energy security in the context of the country’s high dependency on fuel imports and ongoing energy shocks around the world. Japan has started to invest in nuclear power technologies again, with some private money going into Small Modular Reactors (SMR) in the U.S. and state funding trickling into Japan’s own High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) program.  Although local municipalities have the final say on restarting nuclear power plants, Humber says that the pro-nuclear message has been re-gaining popularity with many arguing that Japan cannot meet its “green growth” strategy without it. 

We discuss how Japan went from being the victim of nuclear weapons to a major player in nuclear energy, tying that in with a broader history of energy of Japan, characterized by a series of rapid energy transitions. The transition from coal to nuclear could serve as an example to other countries, though it was a process that faced many challenges of its own and relied on making some promises the government ultimately couldn’t keep. As someone who lived near both the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents at the time when they occured, Humber has a first hand perspective on the cultural and political changes around nuclear in 2011. We discuss these aspects as well as technical problems facing Japanese energy supply following the closure of its many nuclear plants.

Finally, we discuss the alternatives for Japanese decarbonization. The challenge of providing constant power to a megapolis such as the Tokyo metro area is immense. Already Japan has the most solar panels per square meter of any country on Earth. And it has ambitious plans for off-shore wind and eventually a hydrogen economy. Carbon capture has been discussed, yet only one geological carbon storage test facility exists in all of Japan. The obstacles to more ambitious renewables plans too are becoming clear, not only from land use, materials intensity, and issues of intermittency, but NIMBYism. About 1/10 of all municipalities in Japan have ordinances to limit wind and solar deployment or ban it completely. Offshore wind forecasts of 10 GW by 2030 and 45 GW by 2040-2045 have slowed to perhaps 2-3 GW by 2030. Even if Japan is able to rely on nuclear for 20-22% of its electricity needs, decarbonization will be a long and bumpy road, with a likely dependence on LNG and other fossil fuel imports for long into the future.

Yuriy Humber is the founder of the Japan NRG platform, which provides regular information and analysis about the Japanese energy and power industry, markets, and policy. He is also a columnist on energy issues for the “Nikkei Asia” and co-author of an economic research report on Japan by the American Chamber of Commerce in Japan.

Sayonara Nuclear? Japan’s Energy Transitions

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