Gary Klein with Paul Sonkin and Paul Johnson – Conducting Pre-Mortem Analysis (Capital...

In this episode of Capital Allocators, host Ted Seides interviews Gary Klein, Paul Johnson, and Paul Sonkin about pre-mortem analysis, a risk assessment method used to identify potential failures in a plan. Klein discusses his background in cognitive psychology and expertise in decision-making, while Johnson and Sonkin share insights from their paper on the misuse of pre-mortems on Wall Street. The conversation covers the history of pre-mortems, how they work, common mistakes, and benefits such as reducing overconfidence, increasing candor, and making groups smarter. They also discuss other risk mitigation techniques like Shadow Box training, cognitive after-action reviews, devil's advocates, red teams, and risk assessment.