This episode explores the declining alcohol consumption trend in the United States, presenting it not as a cyclical fluctuation but as a significant structural shift impacting the beverage industry. Against the backdrop of relatively flat overall alcohol consumption over the past decade, the podcast highlights the decline in both beer and spirits categories. More significantly, three key factors are identified: reduced alcohol intake among Gen Z (30% less than previous generations at the same age), an aging population with reduced alcohol tolerance and increased medication use, and the growing health and wellness trend. For instance, the increasing adoption of GLP-1 weight loss drugs further contributes to this shift. In contrast to this decline in traditional alcohol consumption, the podcast points to the rising popularity of non-alcoholic alternatives, particularly non-alcoholic beer, which has nearly doubled its market share in the US since 2021. This suggests that low and zero alcohol beverages are poised for significant market share growth, driven by improved product quality and wider distribution. Ultimately, the podcast concludes that the earnings pressures faced by alcohol producers are structural and long-term, not merely cyclical, reshaping the beverage market landscape.
