Forecaster perspectives

Sentinel forecasters in aggregate assess as “83% true” (65% to 100%) the statement that the Trump administration has disobeyed the Supreme Court so far. On the one hand, the Trump administration has done nothing to “facilitate” bringing Abrego García back to the US, and this White House's tweet shown below clearly indicates that it won’t try to; on the other hand, it could yet still do so when the current news cycle subsides. On April 17th, forecasters estimated a 66% chance (50% to ~100%) that Abrego García will not be brought back to the US within the next 60 days (by June 17).

Data on the number of deportations in past administrations are available but can be difficult to compare between administrations; some up-to-date sources include refusals at the border due to Covid (“Title 42 expulsions”) under Biden, but other data have been discontinued. Perhaps a good [...]

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Outline:

(00:12) Forecaster perspectives

(03:16) Summary of events

(03:31) The Abrego García US Supreme Court case.

(05:41) Developments since the Abrego García Supreme Court case

(08:07) Next steps for the court case

(09:32) Plans for further deportations

(11:29) The Insurrection Act

(12:43) Implications and recommendations

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First published:
April 21st, 2025

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hGXvn6GXABHjfzn7C/the-us-executive-vs-supreme-court-deportations-clash

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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“The US Executive vs Supreme Court Deportations Clash” by NunoSempere

LessWrong (30+ Karma)