The pioneers of proof

This episode explores the history and application of statistical methods used to determine certainty in uncertain situations. Against the backdrop of D-Day in 1944, the podcast details how Allied statisticians, using only a few captured German Panther tanks and their serial numbers, accurately estimated German tank production—a feat far below intelligence estimates. More significantly, the discussion pivots to how similar methods were applied during the COVID-19 pandemic to estimate infection rates with limited data. For instance, the "German tank problem" methodology provided quick, rough estimates of the scale of the pandemic, informing subsequent responses. The podcast then introduces Janet Lane Claypon, a pioneer of cohort and case-control studies, whose work on breast milk versus cow's milk and breast cancer risk factors demonstrated the importance of accounting for confounding variables in statistical analysis. Her innovative methods, developed before the widespread adoption of randomized controlled trials, are still relevant today. This highlights the enduring value of robust statistical methods in navigating uncertainty and making informed decisions across various fields, from wartime intelligence to public health.