This episode explores the impact of President Trump's tariff policies on global markets, particularly the US Treasury market and the cryptocurrency market. Against the backdrop of conflicting messages from the White House, the panelists analyze the debate surrounding tariffs, highlighting the lack of clear metrics for success and the resulting market volatility. More significantly, the discussion delves into the implications of thin liquidity in various markets, including the Treasury and equity markets, leading to extreme price swings. For instance, the panelists discuss the unwinding of basis trades and the resulting impact on market makers. As the discussion pivoted to the political ramifications, the panelists considered the potential for a "Trump put" based on the upcoming midterms and public opinion on the tariffs. Finally, the conversation touches upon the potential implications for cryptocurrencies, suggesting that the current market turmoil could accelerate the adoption of crypto as an alternative to the US dollar-dominated system, particularly in countries seeking to reduce reliance on US policy.
