【聊了什么】

特朗普在4月2日「解放日」突然宣布对全球主要贸易伙伴加征高额「对等关税」，引发金融市场剧烈动荡。在短短一周内经历了180度大转弯——对除中国外的多数国家暂停征收额外关税，但对华关税则进一步升级。

这背后究竟发生了什么？是特朗普政府深思熟虑的「一盘大棋」，旨在重塑全球贸易格局、打击特定国家？还是白宫内部不同派系——财政部、贸易鹰派（如纳瓦罗）、经济顾问（如Stephen Miran）——目标各异、甚至相互矛盾的结果？特朗普本人对关税根深蒂固的执念，与他第二任期不受约束的执政风格，又在其中扮演了什么角色？

本期节目，我们邀请了全球市场的交易员Sagar一起深入解读这场关税风暴。

本期节目录制于4月12日。

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合作投稿邮箱：american.roulette.pod@gmail.com

【时间轴】

02:04 事件回顾：特朗普4月2日宣布「对等关税」及后续反转

04:01 关税公式背后的荒谬逻辑

07:18 特朗普对关税的长期执念 vs 第二任期的放飞自我

12:43 三盘「大棋」：财政部 vs 纳瓦罗 vs 米兰

17:09 市场反应与经济影响

24:47 特朗普的核心动机：财政压力还是个人意志？

30:00 美债市场的动荡及其影响

42:18 政治影响：国会反应、特朗普党内控制力

01:03:25 未来展望：谈判前景、多边贸易体系的挑战

01:07:01 TikTok问题与中美贸易谈判

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

我们的主播和嘉宾：

小华：媒体人

王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子

Sagar：全球市场交易员

【 What We Talked About】

On "Liberation Day," April 2nd, Donald Trump abruptly announced hefty "reciprocal tariffs" on major global trading partners, sending shockwaves through financial markets. Within just one week, the policy underwent a dramatic U-turn – additional tariffs were suspended for most countries except China, whose tariffs were instead escalated.

What truly happened behind the scenes? Was it a calculated "grand strategy" by the Trump administration aimed at reshaping global trade and targeting specific nations? Or was it the result of conflicting, even contradictory, goals among different factions within the White House – the Treasury Department, trade hawks like Navarro, and economic advisors like Stephen Miran? What role did Trump's own deep-seated obsession with tariffs and his less constrained governing style in his second term play?

In this episode, we invite Sagar, a global markets trader, for an in-depth analysis of this tariff turmoil.

This episode was recorded on April 12th.

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/

Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com

【Timeline】

02:04 Recap: Trump's April 2nd "Reciprocal Tariffs" & Subsequent Reversals

04:01 The Absurd Logic Behind the Tariff Formula

07:18 Trump's Longstanding Tariff Obsession vs. Second Term Unbound

12:43 Three "Grand Strategies": Treasury vs. Navarro vs. Miran

17:09 Market Reaction & Economic Impact

24:47 Trump's Core Motivations: Fiscal Pressure or Personal Will?

30:00 US Treasury Market Turmoil & Its Impacts

42:18 Political Fallout: Congressional Reaction, Trump's GOP Control

01:03:25 Future Outlook: Negotiation Prospects, Challenges to Multilateral Trade

01:07:01 The TikTok Issue & US-China Trade Talks

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Our Hosts and Guests:

小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer

王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information

Sagar: Global Markets Trader

【The Links】

https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/reciprocal-tariff-calculations

https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2025/04/cea-chairman-steve-miran-hudson-institute-event-remarks/

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050 | 特朗普关税风暴：草台班子的大棋？Trump's Tariff Storm: A Ragtag Crew's Grand Strategy?

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