This episode explores the outlook for U.S. natural gas markets, focusing on price forecasts for 2025 and 2026. Against the backdrop of record LNG feed gas flows and increased production in the Permian Basin, the analysts increased their 2025 price forecast to $3.8 per MMBTU, citing limited supply response to strong demand. More significantly, the discussion pivoted to the potential impact of a predicted recession on the U.S. natural gas market. While acknowledging the negative impact on industrial demand, the analysts highlighted that the U.S. administration's industrialization efforts and potential lower oil prices could counterbalance this effect. For instance, lower oil prices could impact associated gas production in the Permian Basin, potentially requiring higher natural gas prices to meet the demand gap. In contrast, the 2026 forecast saw only a marginal increase, reflecting anticipated production growth and higher storage levels. Ultimately, the analysts emphasized the uncertainty surrounding the recession's impact and the various factors influencing natural gas prices. This means for the industry that while the short-term outlook is bullish, the long-term forecast remains uncertain and dependent on several macroeconomic factors.
