Our guest is someone who spends a lot of time thinking about Europe's place in the world, and how it should adapt to the new global order of Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. We speak to Dutch political theorist and historian Luuk van Middelaar, who heads the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics, about European defence, its strategic autonomy, artificial intelligence policy and of course the frayed relationship with Donald Trump in the light of the US president's trade war.

Van Middelaar points to the crucial role played by Germany in changing Europe's course on defence. "Friedrich Merz, on behalf of Germany, has found the space for €500 billion of investment, not only on infrastructure and transport, but also on defence. In a way, this is exporting a loosening of the fiscal rule book to the rest of the EU," van Middelaar states. Alluding to the opposition to the EU's ReArmEU plan in the Dutch parliament and in parts of the Italian government, van Middelaar says: 'I think the Dutch will come along once they see how Germany's position has changed. Germany is the central player here because it is the strongest economy and has the strictest budget rules. So when Germany relaxes those rules for itself, that encourages its neighbours and European partners to do the same. That is a general movement that Germany can set in motion, that Dutch and Italians and others will not stop so easily. So I think that fundamental change is afoot in that field."

Continuing with the theme of fundamental change, van Middelaar contends that "2025 might, in hindsight, at some point, be seen as the same pivotal moment in European or world history as 1989 – the end of the Cold War. [The historian] Francis Fukuyama called it 'the end of history.' Putin put an end to that three years ago already. But, in a way, what Trump is doing, I would say, is even more fundamental. Because Trump is ending the world order which started in 1945. That order is being unravelled, and I think that's the underlying objective in all the actions of the Trump administration – be it in his opening to Putin when it comes to the war in Ukraine, or his contempt for Europe as a historic ally (of America)."

Speaking of Trump's overture to Putin, and the apparent exclusion of the EU from the negotiating process on Ukraine, van Middelaar says: "The EU, or at least some European powers – France, the UK, or others – should try to get a seat at that negotiation. Because what is at stake is the future of European security. It's about how the continent at large, all the way from the UK to Ukraine, holds together and keeps the peace. It’s a bit humiliating that there are no European voices currently in that conversation."

So has the EU "woken up" to this new world order when it comes to its own strategic industries and artificial intelligence? "I think there is an awareness in the EU that, in the field of AI, Europe risks being squeezed between China and US big tech, especially now that American big tech is becoming more adversarial and closely aligned with Trump," van Middelaar replies. "There are startups; there are initiatives. There was a big AI summit in Paris earlier this year and I think this will be followed up with dedicated investments, with EU funding and also with funding by national capitals. So this is really a continental effort." Both the Americans and the Chinese "look at the 21st century as the era of AI wars that are fought with different means," van Middelaar goes on. "So Europe has to get ready for a rougher world order where we have to be able to defend ourselves."

Programme prepared by Oihana Almandoz, Perrine Desplats, Luke Brown and Isabelle Romero

'Fundamental change is afoot in European defence': Political theorist Luuk van Middelaar

Talking Europe