Yesterday I had Vince Lanci back on the podcast again, this time to talk about what is going on between the US and China. It was a fascinating conversation on the tariff situation, what negotiations might look like, and where things might be headed. We also talked about gold, oil, the worst case scenarios for the US and China, and how they might meet in the middle. You can find Vince on his Substack as well as on Twitter.

Podcast Summary

* The tug of war between how the US debt markets need China, and how the Chinese economy needs the US consumer.

* The breakdown in trust leading to a breakdown in credit.

* Japan, China, and Europe all taking money out of US markets and bringing it home.

* Everyone heading for the exit at the same time, US funds and institutions trying to front run it, and you see those moves in the currencies, especially yesterday. “It’s an FX operation. Are they doing it all at once? No.”

* Tariffs are a tool to accelerate some of the changes that need to happen.

* How the correlations between different asset classes are changing.

* Gold as the pet rock, and the potential for stagflation.

* How the China and US situation is likely to play out.

* The worst case scenario for each country and working back towards the middle for a potential resolution.

* For the US, the worst case scenario is the loss of the US dollar as the global reserve currency.

* For China, that is the punitive tariffs and a Chinese Great Depression.

* Trump talking about tax cuts and the timeline for resolving things with China.

* The nuclear option for China being a return to the gold standard.

* The nuclear option for the US is to start a war.

* The potential for a financial iron curtain between the East and the West.

* What a resolution between China and the US means for oil.

* Book Recommendation: The Grand Chessboard by Zbigniew Brzezinski.

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Kontrarian Korner #48 - Vince Lanci

Kontrarian Korner