Freezing of Russian foreign assets has triggered a structural change in the demand for gold, and the shift in US foreign policy from Pax Americana to Pax Trumpiana has accelerated and broadened gold ownership. Traditionally, with large above-ground stocks of gold acting as a pool of supply, gold prices have been largely determined by the relative strength of demand. However, to meet this increased demand, a structural response, which so far has been constrained, from the supply side is necessary. After the US abandoned the gold standard in 1971, gold took 38 years to surpass $1,000 in March 2008. It reached $2,000 in August 2020, doubling in 12 years. The pace accelerated, breaking $3,000 on March 14, 2025, in just under five years. With each $1,000 phase taking two-thirds less time, could $4,000 be next?

Speaker:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

This podcast was recorded on 28 March 2025.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4924668-0 or more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global Commodities: Gold higher still. Is $4,000 in the cards?

At Any Rate