The alliance that has ensured peace throughout most of Europe is now at the centre of all attention. «We are in a very dangerous era. The next 25 years will probably be the most challenging NATO has ever had», argues Peter Apps, global affairs columnist for Reuters and author of the book «Deterring Armageddon: a biography of NATO».

In this interview, the expert is convinced that a new world conflict will be triggered by the ambition of countries that want to extend their borders by force of arms.

«I think the world is probably organised enough so that we don't have a third world war by mistake. If we do, it will be because one or more countries have made a really big gamble on attempting to do what Putin has done in Ukraine», he emphasises.

With Europe grappling with the war on Ukrainian soil - and on the verge of affecting NATO member countries - the continent will have to rethink its defence investment. And with Donald Trump in the White House, Europeans will have to be more autonomous in their military decisions.

The future of the relationship between the US and Europe is still unclear. The expert points out that, on the one hand, it is not certain that the Europeans «will do enough to keep the Trump government on their side, to ensure continued US support». On the other hand, it is not known how tolerant the next US president will be if Europe tries to go its own way.

Highlighting the importance of NATO membership for Nordic countries and Turkey, Apps predicts that the current tense environment could persist for 15, 20, or even 30 years, ushering in a kind of new Cold War.

Peter Apps does, however, leave us with a message of hope for the future: «we are clearly in an era of conflict, but common sense will prevail».

More on the topic:
Peter Apps official website
X account (Twitter)
Substack for Peter Apps newsletter
Ted X London
Interview about NATO on Dan Snow's podcast
Interview with Sábado magazine
Interview on the History Hack podcast

THE FUTURE OF NATO, with Peter Apps

It’s not that simple