(Audio version here (read by the author), or search for "Joe Carlsmith Audio" on your podcast app.

This is the fourth essay in a series that I’m calling “How do we solve the alignment problem?”. I’m hoping that the individual essays can be read fairly well on their own, but see this introduction for a summary of the essays that have been released thus far, and for a bit more about the series as a whole.)

1. Introduction and summary

In my last essay, I offered a high-level framework for thinking about the path from here to safe superintelligence. This framework emphasized the role of three key “security factors” – namely:

Safety progress: our ability to develop new levels of AI capability safely,
Risk evaluation: our ability to track and forecast the level of risk that a given sort of AI capability development involves, and
Capability restraint [...]