The EU has just launched an ambitious-sounding defence plan, “ReArmEU”, and it is also publishing a landmark white paper on defence. The person at the heart of these initiatives is our guest on the programme; Andrius Kubilius is the EU Commissioner in charge of defence and space. A Lithuanian conservative who was twice prime minister of his country, he started this crucial job – the first time such a portfolio has been created at the Commission – in early December. But questions remain about the financing of ReArmEU – which would cost 800 billion euros – and on how exactly to incentivise the production of military hardware on European soil.

“Our policy should not be naïve,” Kubilius asserts. “It should be to strengthen Ukrainian capabilities and our own capabilities even after peace is established. Because for us, it's very clear that even if peace will be established, Russia will not stop its military economy and production of weapons. They are producing four times more weapons than all the NATO member states are at the moment.”

Kubilius goes on; “If we really are serious about our defence capabilities, then we need to look at how we overcome our shortages, which, for the time being, are creating temptation for Putin to test us.” Kubilius adds that, according to German intelligence, the Kremlin is discussing the possibility of testing NATO’s article 5 (the mutual defence clause) by 2030, “so that is what is making us ramp up our defence production, in order to be ready to defend ourselves.”

Asked exactly where the money for the EU’s 800-billion-euro defence plan will come from, Kubilius states; “Some countries have possibilities to borrow (money) quite cheaply themselves on the markets, while other countries will benefit from what the European Union is proposing.” On that last point – the 180 billion euros in loans for defence investments – Kubilius insists that this is “not a shared burden because member states that use that loan will issue their own guarantees and will be responsible for repaying the loan. The same as what was done during the pandemic, when at least 20 countries used European Union loans.”

Kubilius elaborates; “So this is nothing very new, really. The new thing is that the European Union is using this instrument in order to strengthen its own defence capability, and also opening possibilities to support Ukraine in a much more effective way.”

A crucial sticking point in EU defence reform remains: how to build European military hardware in Europe. How will the Commission ensure this European preference?

“The European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP) is going through negotiations in the Council and in the Parliament,” Kubilius answers. “European preference is a very clear strategic goal. Until now, the member states have been spending quite a lot of their national defence money outside of the European defence industry market. So we are not supporting the development of our defence industry in the most effective way. We need to change that. We want to incentivise member states to go for joint procurement and also to procure more European weapons. This is the how we can build our defence industry, and be ready to act in a real war.”

Space is also in Kubilius’s remit, and we ask him how the EU might reduce its strategic dependence on the Trump administration in space. “We are developing new systems, for example IRIS Square,” Kubilius responds. “We hope it will be at the same level as (Elon Musk’s) Starlink, or even maybe better. It will be really a good alternative, but it will only become operational in 2029, 2030. So before that we shall have a precursor system, where national satellite communication systems will be integrated into one system and that will start to be operational in the middle of this year,” Kubilius concludes.

Programme prepared by Luke Brown, Perrine Desplats, Oihana Almandoz et Isabelle Romero

Defence shortages create ‘temptation for Putin to test us’: EU Defence Commissioner Kubilius

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