This podcast interviews Peter Turchin, a complexity scientist, about his book "End Times," which applies complexity science to historical analysis. The interview explores Turchin's concept of "Clio Dynamics," focusing on four key drivers of societal change: widening inequality, elite overproduction, state weakness, and popular immiseration. The conversation uses the US and its history, including the rise of Trump, as a case study to illustrate these dynamics and the cyclical nature of societal crises. Turchin argues that while crises are often inevitable, their outcomes are not predetermined, emphasizing the potential for both positive and negative change depending on the actions of elites and the population. The discussion concludes with a global perspective, considering the implications of these dynamics for international relations and suggesting a need for a more scientific approach to understanding history.
