This Morgan Stanley podcast episode focuses on downside and upside risks to the U.S. economy, primarily discussing the impact of tariffs. The speaker, Seth Carpenter, highlights the underappreciated negative growth implications of tariffs, particularly reciprocal tariffs, contrasting them with the potentially positive impact of AI-driven productivity gains. He notes that while the baseline forecast anticipates significant tariffs on China, the risk of broader reciprocal tariffs is increasing, potentially impacting global economies. The podcast concludes by reiterating the baseline view but acknowledging the significant downside risks associated with escalating tariff disputes.
