For today’s COBT, we had the pleasure of hosting our good friend and award-winning columnist Liam Denning. Liam is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering the energy sector and was previously with the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times. He has nearly twenty years of experience covering energy and has experience in energy investment banking and consulting. We were thrilled to connect with Liam to discuss his recent article, “Hiding an Army at the Top of the World.” The article touches on several timely and important factors including military forces, geopolitics, the climate, the potential for greater access to Arctic trade routes, and oil and gas as well as broader resources development in the region.

Liam first provides background on how he got involved with the Army and the interesting connection he formed with a war photographer interested in the Arctic. For the story, the two partnered to provide on-the-ground reporting on the Army’s activities in Alaska. We discuss the increasing accessibility of the Arctic due to warming and the related geopolitical implications, Liam’s experience visiting the US Army’s Northern Warfare Training Center in Alaska, and the challenges of operating in the harsh Arctic environment. We also cover the recent debates around oil and gas development in Alaska in light of Russia’s aggressive plans in the Arctic, the Chinese perspective and the involvement of other countries in the Arctic including Norway, Finland, and Canada. Liam shares his perspective on the changes he’s witnessed in the oil and gas industry over the past fifteen years and the importance of adapting to maintain relevance and his view on the role of major oil companies in the energy transition. It was a fascinating conversation and we want to thank Liam for joining us.

To start the show, Mike Bradley highlighted that May CPI printed slightly below consensus while core CPI printed slightly above consensus. He noted traders will be focused on the Wednesday morning PPI print and afternoon FOMC Rate Decision, where odds favor the FED temporarily pausing rate hikes. He then flagged that Saudi’s announcement last week of a 1mmbpd crude oil production cut (set for July) has not been enough to stabilize crude oil. He noted several crosscurrents that are influencing this crude oil volatility, all of which are challenging whether this current weakness is physical or financial related. He wrapped by noting Shell’s Capital Markets Day on Wednesday will be a focus for investors as the first formal opportunity for Shell’s new management to lay out their end of decade vision, which could provide a roadmap to narrowing the 2-3 multiple point valuation discount to the US oil majors. Arjun Murti built on some of Mike’s themes and highlighted the difference in energy perspectives between the UK, Europe, the US, and the rest of the world. He also teed up the discussion of the role of the oil and gas industry outside of its core, prepping us for our discussion with Liam.

We are eager to see what Liam writes next and hope you find this topic as interesting as we do. Thanks to you all!

“The State Is Back In Energy” Featuring Liam Denning, Bloomberg Opinion

C.O.B. Tuesday