The 1982 playbook

This podcast episode discusses the January CPI report and its implications for the markets, focusing on the interplay between inflation, government policies, and the Federal Reserve's actions. The discussion analyzes the market's reaction to the CPI data, considering factors like bond auctions and the potential impact of new administration policies (immigration, tariffs, and deregulation). Anshul Sehgal, the guest, suggests that while the CPI was hotter than expected, it doesn't necessarily signal renewed inflationary pressures. He argues that a combination of loose fiscal policy and tight monetary policy, similar to the Reagan era, could lead to inflation around 3% and 10-year treasury yields between 4% and 4.5%. Ultimately, Sehgal recommends investing in corporate bonds and stocks, anticipating a strong dollar.