This podcast episode challenges the Eurocentric “Thucydides Trap” theory of inevitable war between rising and declining powers, using East Asian history as a counter-example. The discussion analyzes the surprisingly peaceful relations between China, Korea, Japan, and Vietnam over centuries, attributing this stability to shared cultural understanding and a hegemonic system rather than a balance of power. The panelists argue that internal factors, not external threats, have historically caused dynastic transitions in East Asia, and that this internal focus remains relevant to understanding contemporary U.S.-China relations. The Imjin War (1592-1598) is presented as an exception, highlighting Japan's unique path to modernization and its subsequent challenges to the regional order. The episode concludes by emphasizing the importance of considering internal dynamics and shared cultural contexts when analyzing international relations in East Asia.
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