Tariffs could lift global inflation this year, but business cycle dynamics are likely to play an important role in driving core inflation performance. Consistent with our forecast that the global economy turns into the new year generating above-trend growth, we anticipate that global core CPI (ex China and Türkiye) will rise at a 3%ar in 1H25, in line with its 2024 outcome. Alongside a firming in core goods inflation, services inflation looks set to continue but should be limited and divergent across countries. Our bias is for a larger Euro area inflation slide vis a vis the US and UK, while EM is likely to remain differentiated. Tariffs add to upside risk and will provide a further test of persistent inflation and psychology.

Speakers

Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economist

Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist

This podcast was recorded on February 05, 2025.

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https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4795397-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4895168-0

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