Big Debates: Who Will Be the Trade Winners Under Trump?

This panel discussion on the "Thoughts on the Market" podcast focuses on the U.S.-Mexico trade relationship, reshoring, and nearshoring trends. The discussion begins with an overview of the impact of 2018 tariffs and the COVID-19 pandemic on global supply chains, leading to a debate on the continued momentum of U.S. reshoring. A key argument is that while supply chain concerns have eased, the focus on operational resiliency and shorter supply chains remains, presenting a multi-decade opportunity estimated at $10 trillion. The panelists also discuss Mexico's potential to benefit from this reshoring, highlighting the importance of managing the relationship with China and the need for policy calibration to address trade and non-trade issues. Finally, the discussion touches upon the development of nearshoring in Mexico, projecting potential investments and the emergence of new manufacturing ecosystems.