In Conversation with GROW – Cracks in sentiment beginning to surface

This interview podcast focuses on analyzing the current state of Chinese-US relations and their impact on global financial markets. The discussion begins with the immediate market reaction to the Biden administration's actions against Chinese tech giants and then transitions to a detailed analysis of potential outcomes of Trump's upcoming tariff decisions, ranging from a worst-case scenario of broad tariffs to a more targeted approach. The conversation further explores the drivers of US inflation, the RMB's depreciation pressure, and the effectiveness of Chinese regulatory interventions. Finally, the speakers delve into the Chinese economic cycle, using a proprietary model to assess the market's valuation and potential upside, highlighting the importance of upcoming policy announcements from the National People's Congress. A key takeaway is the prediction of lingering US inflation and the potential for a stronger Chinese Yuan in the long term, contingent on successful negotiations with the US.