Jonathan Reimer, an emergency manager, emphasizes the need to strike a balance between intuition and rational analysis in high-stakes decision-making. He notes that while gathering information is essential, depending solely on data can have negative consequences. Instead, he proposes a “size-up” approach, which involves collecting crucial information first before tapping into intuition. This method helps avoid the dangers of making decisions based solely on gut feelings, which can often be misleading. Reimer suggests that the best results come from a structured assessment followed by intuitive input, using examples from wildfire responses and a classic cognitive bias puzzle to highlight his points.
