In this episode of the Goldman Sachs Exchanges podcast, the focus is on a survey of over 500 investors about their expectations for the economic policies of a potential second Trump administration. The primary concern among investors is the possibility of a universal tariff on all goods. While many expect targeted tariffs on China and the auto industry, a notable minority believes a universal tariff could be on the horizon, assigning it a 35% probability. Additionally, investors foresee a reduction in net immigration to about 750,000 per year, an extension of the 2017 tax cuts with some smaller adjustments, and limited cuts to government spending due to fiscal pressures. The podcast wraps up by noting that although investors generally predict higher inflation from tariffs, Goldman Sachs' economists argue that the actual impact may be less severe than anticipated, which could result in continued rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
