The BCOM Index is projected to deliver a flat return in 2024 and is expected to remain relatively stable in 2025, as declines in energy are offset by further price increases in metals and agriculture. Food and energy components have accounted for 35% of the decline in the headline U.S. CPI print this year, and commodities are anticipated to continue supporting disinflationary trends in 2025. We maintain our multi-year bullish outlook on gold for the third consecutive year and anticipate stronger gains in silver and platinum. Industrial metals have moved to the second position among our most preferred sectors, and we hold a positive view on agricultural commodities relative to the forward curves. We remain neutral on U.S. natural gas, while our perspective on oil has shifted from neutral to outright bearish.

Speakers:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research

Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research

Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research

This podcast was recorded on 6 December 2024.

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Global Commodities: 2025 Outlook: bullish on gold for third year; supply-constrained base metals offer better value than oversupplied oil

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