In this monologue, Peter Thiel explores the philosophical question of luck versus determinism in startups and life, arguing that society is biased towards attributing success to luck. He introduces a framework for understanding the future based on optimism/pessimism and determinacy/indeterminacy, suggesting the U.S. in the 50s/60s was optimistic and determinate, while the period from 1982-2007 was characterized by indeterminate optimism. Thiel critiques indeterminate optimism as unsustainable, leading to low savings, low investment, and a focus on process over substance, contrasting it with determinate optimism, which fosters engineering, art, and specific visions of the future. He uses historical examples like the transcontinental railroad and Robert Moses's infrastructure projects to illustrate determinate optimism and discusses how a shift towards indeterminacy has affected various fields, including finance, politics, literature, and philosophy. Thiel concludes by advocating for a definite future driven by long-term visions and challenges the prevailing belief that success is primarily luck-driven, using Apple and Facebook as examples of companies with strong, determinate plans.
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