President-elect Trump will return to the White House in January with a commitment to rapidly defeat inflation by lowering energy prices. Trump’s energy agenda presents downside risks to oil prices from deregulation and increased US production, while also posing upside risks by exerting pressure on Iran, Venezuela, and possibly Russia to limit their oil exports and revenues. But with US oil supply growth moderating and GCC countries unlikely to offset lost exports, any policies that might raise oil prices will likely defer to Trump’s key objective of maintaining low energy prices. Weak oil supply-demand fundamentals may, however, help Trump keep his promise to bring down oil prices. Our view on 2025 has remained largely unchanged over the past year: we look for a large 1.3 mbd surplus and an average Brent of $73, although we expect prices to close the year firmly below $70, with WTI at $64. In 2026, another year of large surpluses will drive Brent prices below $60 by year-end, with an average Brent forecast of $61 and WTI at $57.

Speaker:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

This podcast was recorded on 22, November 2024.

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Global Commodities: Oil Outlook 2025/2026: Promises made, promises kept

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