Probabilistic modeling is useful for answering all kinds of questions, from assessing financial risk to making engineering time estimates. Yet spreadsheets are poor at this job, which is why Taimur and his colleagues are building Casual. Taimur talks with Mark and Adam about ranges as an intuitive way to estimate; the usefulness of Monte Carlo simulations; and the role of math in dating cave paintings.

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Show notes

Taimur Abdaal
Casual
Not Overthinking
Airtable
Drake‘s equation
line of best fit
“not even wrong”
Flatland
Monte Carlo simulation
R
closed-form solution
RoboCup
Slack (management book)
queueing theory
The Principles of Product Development Flow
tail risk
expected value
gambler’s fallacy
distribution shapes e.g. bell curve
fan chart
Samo Burja of Bismark Analysis
meta-analysis
preregistered studies
confidence interval
false positive, false negative
onboarding episode
A/A testing
carcinization
combinatorics
two-tailed test

29 // Thinking in probabilities with Taimur Abdaal

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