Since late-October, a price premium has been building in the TTF natural gas market, particularly summer 2025. Starting the winter season with lower storage in the ground relative to last year, the European natural gas market has had to contend with a colder than normal November, a huge amount of uncertainty regarding whether Russian gas will flow through Ukraine in 2025, and slower than anticipated commencement timelines for new North American LNG export projects. We will discuss whether this risk premium is justified and how we see risks to the current price relationship between summer 2025 and winter 2025-26.

Speakers:

Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research

Otar Dgebuadze, Global Natural Gas Research

This podcast was recorded on 15, November 2024.

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Global Commodities: European Natural Gas: Weather and supply-side risks tighten their grip on price

At Any Rate