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Topic: Surging shipping rates pose new headwind for the global economy

Shocks to supply chains are engulfing a wider swath of the global economy as the pandemic rages on, threatening to stifle Asia’s trade-led recovery just as soaring freight rates make it harder for businesses to weather another year like 2020.
疫情肆虐，衝擊供應鏈，全球經濟受創幅度加巨；高昂的運費，讓企業更難再熬過如二○二○年般艱難的一年，以貿易為主導之亞洲經濟，復甦之路恐窒礙難行。

Shortages of consumer goods like paper towels and work-from-home gear early in the COVID-19 crisis have given way to parts shortfalls in one of the most globally integrated of industries: auto manufacturing.
武漢肺炎（新型冠狀病毒病，COVID-19）危機初期的紙巾與在家工作用品等消費品之短缺，已轉為汽車製造業的零件短缺──造車業為全球整合程度最高的工業之一。

Compounding the industrial imbalances are transport woes plaguing consumer and healthcare sectors still dealing with a dearth of available shipping containers to move components and finished products out of China, Taiwan, South Korea and Asia’s other export powers.
消費與醫療保健業所面臨之運輸困難，使工業的失衡狀況加劇──由於貨櫃短缺，零組件及製成品很難由中國、台灣、韓國及亞洲其他出口大國運出。

Nerijus Poskus, vice president for global ocean at San Francisco-based freight forwarder Flexport Inc, reckons the world needs the equivalent of 500,000 more 20-foot containers — roughly enough to fill 25 of the largest ships in operation — to satisfy the current demand. In the meantime, standard container rates on transpacific routes are quadruple what they were a year ago. And that is before equipment surcharges and premiums for guaranteed loading are added.
總部設於舊金山的運輸公司「飛協博」全球海洋副總裁奈瑞尤斯‧帕司克斯估計，若要滿足當前需求，全世界需要再增加五十萬個二十呎貨櫃──大約可裝滿二十五艘目前最大的船舶。而且現在跨太平洋航線的標準貨櫃運價是一年前的四倍，這還不包括設備附加費及保證裝載的額外費用。

“Anyone paying the freight bills in 2020 though knows the true cost of shipping is much higher than even the recently increased rates,” Poskus said. “We expect that to only increase in 2021.”
「雖然在二○二○年支付運費的人都知道，真正的運輸成本甚至比最近上漲的運費還要高」，帕司克斯表示。「我們預計在二○二一年只會繼續上漲」。

The unstoppable rise in container shipping costs is borne out by December figures recently announced by Taiwan’s three major shipping companies — Evergreen Marine Corp, Yang Ming Marine Transport Corp and Wan Hai Lines Ltd — which saw a record-breaking year-on-year surge of revenue at 58.8 percent, 35.19 percent and 75.71 percent respectively.
貨櫃海運運價一路走高，勢不可擋，台灣貨櫃三雄──長榮、陽明、萬海──近日公布二○二○年十二月營收，分別年增百分之五十八點八、百分之三十五點一九、百分之七十五點七一，皆同步創下歷史新高。
Source article: https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/lang/archives/2021/01/18/2003750759

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Topic: The world is dependent on Taiwan for semiconductors

As China pushes the world to avoid official dealings with Taiwan, leaders across the globe are realizing just how dependent they have become on the island democracy.
中國迫使世界斷絕與台灣的正式往來，此時全球的領導人卻了解到，他們對這民主島國的依賴程度已如此之深。

Taiwan is being courted for its capacity to make leading-edge computer chips. That is mostly down to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC), the world’s largest foundry and go-to producer of chips for Apple Inc smartphones, artificial intelligence and high-performance computing.
台灣以其製造先進電腦晶片的能力而備受青睞。這主要歸功於台灣積體電路製造公司﹝簡稱台積電﹞。台積電是全球最大的晶圓代工廠，也是蘋果公司智慧型手機、人工智慧及高效能運算晶片的首選製造商。

Taiwan’s role in the world economy largely existed below the radar until it came to recent prominence as the auto industry suffered shortfalls in chips used for everything from parking sensors to reducing emissions. With carmakers including Germany’s Volkswagen AG, Ford Motor Co of the US and Japan’s Toyota Motor Corp forced to halt production and idle plants, Taiwan’s importance has suddenly become too big to ignore.
台灣在世界經濟中的角色大多不為人所注意，直到最近由於汽車工業的晶片短缺（由倒車雷達至減少排放等皆須用到晶片），台灣才成為全世界眾所矚目之地。包括德國福斯汽車、美國福特汽車及日本豐田汽車在內的汽車製造商被迫停止生產、將工廠閒置，台灣的重要性因此也突然變得不可忽視。

That is not to say Taiwan is the only player in the semiconductor supply chain. The US still holds dominant positions, notably in chip design and electronic software tools; ASML Holding NV of the Netherlands has a monopoly on the machines needed to fabricate the best chips; Japan is a key supplier of equipment, chemicals and wafers.
這並不是說台灣是半導體供應鏈中的唯一角色。美國仍居主導地位，特別是在晶片設計和電子軟體工具方面；製造最佳晶片所需之機器是由荷蘭的艾司摩爾所壟斷；日本則是設備、化學品和晶圓的主要供應國。

However, as the emphasis shifts to ever smaller, more powerful chips that require less energy, TSMC is increasingly in a field of its own. It has also helped Taiwan form a comprehensive ecosystem around it: ASE Technology Holding is the world’s top chip assembler, while MediaTek has become the largest smartphone chipset vendor.
但是，隨著重點轉移到體積更小、功能更強大且用電更少的晶片上，台積電便愈發自成體系。台積電也幫助台灣建構了一個全面的生態系統，以台積電為中心：日月光是世界頂尖的晶片封測廠，而聯發科技已成為智慧型手機晶片組最大的供應商。

A big worry is that TSMC’s chip factories could become collateral damage if China were to make good on threats to invade Taiwan if it moves toward independence.
一大隱憂是，若台灣邁向獨立、中國果真入侵台灣，則台積電晶片廠恐受牽連，成為附帶損害。

“Taiwan is the center of gravity of Chinese security policy,” said Mathieu Duchatel, director of the Asia program at the Institut Montaigne in Paris. Preserving the world’s most advanced fabs “is in the interests of everyone.”
「台灣是中國安全政策的重中之重」，巴黎蒙田研究所亞洲計畫主任杜懋之表示；保護世界上最先進的晶圓廠「符合所有人的利益」。
Source article: https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/lang/archives/2021/02/01/2003751534

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Topic: Reinventing Workers for the Post-COVID Economy

The nation’s economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic will hinge to some extent on how quickly show managers can become electricians, whether taxi drivers can become plumbers, and how many cooks can manage software for a bank.
美國經濟能否從新冠疫情影響下復甦，將在一定程度上取決於表演經理們要多久才能變成電工，計程車司機能否化身為水管匠，以及有多少廚師能替銀行管理軟體。

This is likely to prove especially problematic for millions of low-paid workers in service industries like retailing, hospitality, building maintenance and transportation, which may be permanently impaired or fundamentally transformed. What will janitors do if fewer people work in offices? What will waiters do if the urban restaurant ecosystem never recovers its density?
這對零售業、餐旅業、建築維修和運輸業等服務業數百萬低薪工人來說，問題恐怕特別大。這些行業可能受到永久性損害或發生根本性改變。若辦公室裡人變少了，工友要做什麼呢？若都市餐廳生態系統繁盛不再，服務生又該如何？

Their prognosis is bleak. Marcela Escobari, an economist at the Brookings Institution, warns that even if the economy adds jobs as the coronavirus risk fades, “the rebound won’t help the people that have been hurt the most.”
他們的前景是黯淡的。布魯金斯學會經濟學家艾思科巴里警告說，即使就業機會隨新冠肺炎風險消退而增加，「經濟反彈也幫不了那些受創最重的人」。

Looking back over 16 years of data, Escobari finds that workers in the occupations most heavily hit since the spring will have a difficult time reinventing themselves. Taxi drivers, dancers and front-desk clerks have poor track records moving to jobs as, say, registered nurses, pipe layers or instrumentation technicians.
艾思科巴里檢視16年來的數據發現，今春以來受衝擊最大的一些職業，勞工將很難自我改造。計程車司機、舞者和櫃檯人員轉行從事護理師、舖管工或儀器技工等工作者十分有限。

COVID is abruptly taking out a swath of jobs that were thought to be comparatively resilient, in services that require personal contact with customers. And the jolt has landed squarely on workers with little or no education beyond high school, toiling in the low-wage service economy.
新冠肺炎疾病突然帶走了一大批原本被認為較不容易永久消失的工作，即需與客戶面對面接觸的服務工作。這一衝擊直接打擊到那些僅受過高中教育、在低薪服務經濟區塊中掙扎的勞工。

“The damage to the economy and particularly to workers will probably be longer lasting than we think it is going to be,” said Peter Beard, senior vice president at the Greater Houston Partnership, an economic development group.
經濟發展組織大休士頓商會資深副總裁畢爾德表示：「經濟、尤其是勞工們受害的時間，可能比我們預期的還要更長。」

What’s more, he said, COVID will intensify underlying dynamics that were already transforming the workplace. Automation, for one, will most likely accelerate as employers seek to protect their businesses from future pandemics.
他說，更重要的是，新冠肺炎將強化已經在改變職場的潛在動力，自動化即為一例，由於雇主力求讓自己的企業未來不受大疫情影響，自動化極可能加速。

The challenge is not insurmountable. Yet despite scattered success stories, moving millions of workers into new occupations remains an enormous challenge.
這項挑戰並非不能克服。然而，儘管有少數成功的例子，讓數百萬勞工轉業仍是巨大的挑戰。

“We need a New Deal for skills,” said Amit Sevak, president of Revature, a company that hires workers, trains them to use digital tools and helps place them in jobs. “President Roosevelt deployed the massive number of workers unemployed in the Great Depression on projects that created many of the dams and roads and bridges we have. We need something like that.”
雇用勞工後培訓他們使用數位工具，並幫他們找到工作的Revature公司總裁塞瓦克說：「我們需要一項針對職業技能的新政。小羅斯福總統大蕭條時期把大量失業勞工投入工程計畫，興建了我們現在使用的水壩、道路與橋樑。我們需要這樣的東西。」

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