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Topic: In Britain, Rising Prices and Shortages Evoke 1970s-Style Jitters

Long lines at gas stations, rising fuel prices, empty shelves in supermarkets and worries about runaway inflation.
加油站大排長龍，燃料價格上漲，超市貨架空無一物，大家憂心通貨膨脹失控。

Britons have emerged from 18 months of pandemic-imposed hibernation to find their country has many of the same afflictions it had during the 1970s. There is nothing Austin Powers-like about this time machine: Unlike the swinging '60s, the '70s were, by all accounts, some of the bleakest days in postwar Britain; even contemplating a return to them is enough to make leaders of the current government shiver.
英國人從疫情造成的18個月冬眠中醒來，發現國家遭遇許多與1970年代相同的痛苦。這次時光機器情節跟電影「王牌大賤諜」毫無相似之處：不同於動盪的1960年代，人們都說1970年代是戰後英國最淒涼的日子。只是想到要回到當時，就足以讓現任政府領導人不寒而慄。

The sudden burst of doomsaying in Britain is rooted at least as much in psychology as economics. While there is no question the country faces a confluence of problems — some caused by the pandemic, others by Brexit — experts said it was far too soon to predict that Britain was headed for the kind of economic malaise and political upheaval that characterized that decade.
英國突然爆發的末日預言，源自心理學的份量跟經濟學一樣多。無疑地，這個國家面臨一系列問題，一些由疫情引起，另一些由英國脫歐造成。專家們說，現在就預測英國將陷入那十年特有的經濟低迷與政治動盪，仍為時過早。

“It’s a combination of things that could, in principle, lead to that, but are quite survivable on their own,” said Jonathan Portes, a professor of economics at Kings College London. “We always talk about the 1970s, but it’s half a century later, and all sorts of things are different.”
倫敦國王學院經濟學教授波特斯說：「原則上來說，這樣的多種因素組合可能導致那種情況，但個別也能發揮作用。我們總是在談論1970年代，但已過去半個世紀了，一切都不一樣了。」

Britain’s economy, he noted, has bounced back faster from the pandemic than many experts predicted. The shortages in labor and some goods are likely a transitory effect of reopening much of the economy after prolonged lockdowns. Rising wages and supply bottlenecks are driving up the inflation rate, while the fuel shortages that have closed dozens of gas stations reflect a shortage of truck drivers, not of energy supplies.
他指，英國經濟從疫情中恢復的速度比許多專家預測還快。勞動力和一些商品短缺，可能是長期防疫封鎖後重新開放大部分經濟活動的短暫影響。工資上漲和供應瓶頸正在推升通膨率，而造成數十家加油站關閉的燃料短缺，反映的是卡車司機短缺，而非能源供應問題。

Nor does Britain have the aging industrial base and powerful unions it had in the 1970s. Labor unrest led to crippling strikes that brought down a Conservative prime minister, Edward Heath, and one of his Labour Party successors, James Callaghan, after what the tabloids called the winter of discontent, in 1979.
英國也沒有1970年代那樣老化的工業基礎與強大工會。1979年發生小報所稱的「不滿之冬」，勞工騷亂導致嚴重罷工，造成保守黨首相奚斯及他的工黨繼任者之一卡拉漢下台。

And yet the parallels are suggestive enough that the right-leaning Daily Mail warned that “Britain faces winter of woe” — a chilly welcome for Prime Minister Boris Johnson as he returned from the United States, having celebrated a new submarine alliance and rallied countries in advance of a U.N. climate change conference in Scotland in November.
然而，一些相似之處足以引發聯想，讓右傾的每日郵報發出「英國面臨災難冬天」警告。對訪美歸來的英國首相強生而言，這是個冷淡迎接，他才剛慶祝新的潛艦聯盟成立，並在11月蘇格蘭聯合國氣候變遷會議前團結各國。

“That is a very easy ghost to resurrect,” said Kim Darroch, a former British ambassador to Washington who now sits in the House of Lords. “But these are real problems. You can just see this perfect storm coming.”
英國駐華府前大使、現為上議院議員的達洛許說：「那是個很容易復活的鬼魂，但這些都是實實在在的問題。你可以看到這場完美風暴逼近。」Source article: https://udn.com/news/story/6904/5804159

Next Article

Topic: Brexit ‘done’ at last: Now for the hard part

The United Kingdom left the EU on Friday, its most significant change of course since the loss of its empire — and a major blow to 70 years of efforts to forge European unity from the ruins of two world wars.
英國上週五脫離了歐盟，這是自大英帝國解體以來英國最重大的改變，這對自兩次世界大戰廢墟中重建、經七十年整合努力的歐洲來說，也是重大的打擊。

After the numerous twists and turns of a three-and-a-half-year crisis, the final parting is an anticlimax of sorts: Britain steps into the twilight zone of a transition period that preserves membership in all but name until the end of this year.
這場危機歷時三年半、經過無數迂迴曲折，最後的脫歐似乎有些太過平靜：英國進入了過渡期的模糊地帶，雖名義上已脫離歐盟，但到年底前這段過渡期仍享有原先歐盟成員國之待遇。

At a stroke, the EU will lose 15 percent of its economy, its biggest military spender and the world’s international financial capital — London.
“This is the moment when the dawn breaks and the curtain goes up on a new act,” said UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, one of the leaders of the “Leave” campaign in the 2016 referendum. “It is a moment of real national renewal and change.”
英國一脫歐，歐盟即會損失百分之十五的經濟、其最大的軍事開支國，以及國際金融重鎮──倫敦。
英國首相波里斯‧強生說：「這是黎明破曉、揭開新篇章的時刻」，強生曾是二○一六年公投中「脫歐」派的領導人之一。「這是真正的民族復興與變革的一刻。」

DISUNITED KINGDOM
The EU cautioned that leaving meant losing the benefits of membership, though the US said Britons wanted to escape the “tyranny of Brussels.” While Britons either side of the Brexit (a portmanteau of “British” and “exit”) divide expressed either sadness or delight.
國內嚴重的分歧
歐盟警告說，英國脫歐意味失去歐盟成員國所享有的利益，雖然美國表示英國人想逃離「布魯塞爾的暴政」。而對於脫歐，英國贊成與反對的兩方皆表達出其喜與悲。〔「Brexit」（英國脫歐）一字為「Britain」與「 exit」所合成。〕

For proponents, Brexit is “independence day” — an escape from what they cast as a doomed German-dominated project that is failing its 500 million people.
對脫歐支持者來說，英國脫歐日是「獨立日」──擺脫了他們所認為注定失敗、由德國主導、辜負其五億人民的歐盟。

Opponents believe Brexit is a folly that will weaken the West, shrivel what is left of Britain’s global clout, undermine its economy and ultimately lead to a more inward-looking and less cosmopolitan set of islands in the northern Atlantic.
反對脫歐的人認為，英國脫歐是不智之舉，會削弱西方的力量，也會讓英國所剩不多的全球影響力更無足輕重、破壞英國的經濟，最終會讓英國變成獨善其身、國際化程度較低的北大西洋島嶼。

Brexit was always about much more than Europe. The referendum, which split voters 52 percent to 48 percent, showed up deep divisions and triggered soul-searching about everything from secession and immigration to empire and modern Britishness.
英國脫歐所牽涉的問題絕不止是歐洲。脫歐公投將選民撕裂為百分之五十二贊成與百分之四十八反對的兩方，顯示選民分歧之深，也引發了人民對國家分裂、移民，乃至大英帝國及現代對「英國性」之定義等這一切的深刻反省。

SMALL TIMEFRAME AHEAD
Feb. 1 marks the beginning of a new phase of negotiations between London and Brussels to agree on the shape of their future relationship.
協議談判的緊迫時程
倫敦與布魯塞爾自二月一日起開始新階段的談判，以決定其未來關係的樣貌。

They have until the end of 2020 — a transition period during which Britain will remain an EU member in all but name — to hammer out an agreement on trade and other issues including security, energy, transport links, fishing rights and data flow.
將於二○二○年底屆滿的過渡時期中（在過渡期，英國實質仍為歐盟成員，但名義上不是），英國和歐盟必須就貿易和其他問題（包括安全、能源、交通運輸、漁權及資料流通）達成協議。

Johnson claims 11 months is time enough to strike a “zero tariff, zero quota” trade deal and has vowed — even though the option is there — not to extend the limbo period beyond 2020.
強生聲稱，十一個月的時間足以達成「零關稅、零配額」的貿易協議，並誓言不會把過渡期延長、拖過二○二○年，即便英國有此選項。

If they fail, the legal default will be a potentially crippling no-deal Brexit that would leave trade between Britain and the EU from 2021 onwards based on WTO terms, and see the imposition of import duties and controls.
若未在此期限內達成協議，就會變成無協議脫歐，損害可能非常嚴重，英國和歐盟間之貿易便會在二○二一年起依世界貿易組織（WTO）之規定課徵進口關稅及受管制。
Source article: http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/lang/archives/2020/02/04/2003730294/1

Next Article

Topic: In Slumping U.K., Feelings Of ‘Bregret’ Toward Brexit

Six and a half years after voting to leave the European Union, three years after the formal departure, two years after signing a post-Brexit trade deal with Brussels and one month after installing its fourth prime minister since the 2016 referendum, Britain is caught in — what else? — another debate over Brexit.
公投脫歐6年半後、正式脫歐3年後、與布魯塞爾簽署脫歐後貿易協議2年後，以及任命2016年公投以來第四任首相滿月後，英國正陷入，還會有別的嗎？另一場關於英國脫歐的辯論。

Brexit may be in the history books, but “Bregret,” as the British newspapers have called it, is back in the air.
英國脫歐可能已載入史冊，但英國報紙所說的「後悔脫歐」又重新浮上水面。

The cause of the remorse is clear: Britain’s economic crisis, which is the gravest in a generation and worse than those of its European neighbors. Not all — or even most — of the problems are because of Brexit, but Britain’s vexed trade relationship with the rest of Europe indisputably plays a role. That makes it a ripe target for an anxious public casting about for something to blame.
後悔的原因很明顯是英國的經濟危機，這是一個世代以來最嚴重的一次，比歐洲鄰國情況還要糟。並非所有問題都因為英國脫歐，甚至大部分問題都不是，但英國跟歐洲其他國家之間棘手的貿易關係，無疑發揮了一定作用。這讓它成為焦慮民眾追究責任的現成目標。

The latest eruption of this never-ending drama began last week with an opinion poll that showed support for Brexit had fallen to its lowest level yet. Only 32% of those surveyed in the poll, by the firm YouGov, said that they thought leaving the European Union was a good idea; 56% said it was a mistake.
這場永無止盡的鬧劇最近一次上演是在上星期，一項民調顯示英國脫歐支持率已降至最低水位。根據YouGov公司民調，僅32%受訪者認為離開歐盟是個好主意，56%的人則稱這是個錯誤。

The Brexit second-guessing grew louder this week, after The Sunday Times of London published a report that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was considering pursuing a closer arrangement with the European Union, modeled on that of Switzerland. The Swiss have access to the single market and fewer border checks, in return for paying into the bloc’s coffers and accepting some of its rules.
質疑英國脫歐的聲浪本周變得更大，因為倫敦的《周日泰晤士報》刊出報導稱英相蘇納克正考慮仿效瑞士，跟歐盟建立更緊密關係。瑞士能進入歐洲單一市場和享有較少邊境檢查，代價是必須付款給歐盟並接受歐盟一些規範。

Sunak quickly shot down the report, which was attributed to “senior government sources.”
蘇納克迅速駁斥這篇宣稱來自「政府高層消息人士」的報導。

“Under my leadership,” Sunak told business executives Monday, “the United Kingdom will not pursue any relationship with Europe that relies on alignment with EU laws.”
蘇納克周一告訴企業主管表示：「在我的領導下，英國不會尋求與歐洲建立任何仰賴於遵守歐盟法律的關係。」

“I voted for Brexit, I believe in Brexit,” Sunak added. “I know that Brexit can deliver, and is already delivering, enormous benefits and opportunities for the country.”
蘇納克還說：「我投票支持英國脫歐，我相信脫歐。我知道英國脫歐能夠實現，且已在為我國帶來巨大利益和機會。」

While nobody is predicting that Britain will seek to rejoin the European Union, political analysts said that the Sunday Times report, on top of the dismal economic data and growing popular sentiment against Brexit, would open a fresh chapter in Britain’s search for a new relationship with the rest of Europe. Where that would lead, they cautioned, was impossible to predict.
雖然沒人預測英國將尋求重新加入歐盟，但政治分析人士表示，《周日泰晤士報》的報導，加上黯淡經濟數據及日益高漲的反對脫歐民眾情緒，將為英國開啟尋求與歐洲其他國家建立新關係的篇章。他們提醒說，這將導致什麼結果無法預測。Source article: https://udn.com/news/story/6904/6811142

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