This briefing analyzes Matthew Harris's Substack article, "Why the Gray Tribe is Voting Conservative," exploring the reasons behind a potential shift in political allegiance within the tech community.

Key Themes:

The Diminishing Power of the State: Harris argues that the state is transitioning from a creative force, driving innovation (e.g., Bell Labs, DARPA, NASA), to a reactionary entity responding to advancements spearheaded by private companies (e.g., OpenAI, SpaceX, Ethereum). This shift is creating tension between the state and the tech industry.

"The State is largely becoming a reactionary force, rather than a creative one. When a company announces a new contraceptive, the Pope reacts to it. When a company announces a new technology, the State reacts to it."

The "Gray Tribe" and its Discontent: The "Gray Tribe" refers to individuals, primarily within the tech industry, who hold libertarian ideals, value personal freedom, and possess significant technological expertise. While they may align with some social views of the left, they diverge on economic policies and oppose political correctness. Harris posits that this group, traditionally Democrat-leaning, is increasingly voting conservative.
Democratic Alignment with the State: Harris argues that the Democratic Party, through its messaging and policies, has positioned itself as synonymous with the state. He criticizes the DNC for conflating itself with democracy and demonizing opposition. This, combined with the state's perceived overreach into the tech industry, has alienated the "Gray Tribe."

"The Democratic Party over the past two election cycles have basically declared that they are the State."

Reasons for the "Gray Tribe" Shift:

Regulatory Overreach: Harris points to perceived harassment from the SEC towards the blockchain community and the FTC's hawkish approach to M&A transactions under Lina Khan. He argues that these actions stifle innovation and harm the tech industry, pushing them towards the pro-business stance of the conservatives.

"Cryptocurrency threatens the State’s monopoly on currency exchange. Conservatives have promised to allow Bitcoin, blockchain and Etherium to move forward unmolested."

Immigration Policies: Harris criticizes the government's handling of immigration, specifically the difficulties faced by H1B visa holders while undocumented immigration continues. He suggests this further fuels the “Gray Tribe’s” frustration with the current administration.
JD Vance as a "Gray Tribe" Candidate: Harris presents JD Vance, the author of Hillbilly Elegy and a venture capitalist, as an example of a candidate embodying "Gray Tribe" values. He highlights Vance's personal journey, military service, and professional success as appealing to this group.

Harris's Conclusion:

The author sees the current political landscape as a failed experiment by the Biden administration, claiming his policies have exacerbated problems. He calls for a change in direction, emphasizing the need for clarity on key issues from Kamala Harris if she seeks to gain the "Gray Tribe's" support.

"Every administration is a social science experiment. The candidate is saying 'this is how I think the world works, and as such, these are the experiments I’d like to run to make it run better. Vote for me to see these experiments enacted.'"

Important Facts and Ideas:

Harris uses historical examples to illustrate his argument about the state's evolving role in innovation, contrasting the Church's historical dominance with the contemporary rise of private tech companies.
He provides data on M&A deals and job growth to support his claims about the negative impact of regulatory policies.
Harris utilizes strong rhetoric to emphasize his points, often employing charged language like "harassment," "toxic," and "corrupt" to describe the actions and motives of the current administration.

Why the "Gray Tribe" is Shifting Right:

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