This is a link post.

How four accounts have shifted the election probabilities narrative

As the US Presidential Election approaches, all eyes are on who will become the next president - Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump. In early October, many analysts believed both candidates had a relatively equal chance of winning. However, a significant shift in betting markets occurred following Trump's rally in Butler, PA on October 6, with odds heavily moving in his favor.

On Polymarket, traders began noticing a sharp increase in bets on Trump. This shift was driven by a group of relatively new accounts, which have, as of today, deposited approximately $35 million USDC into Polymarket and deployed $33 million across election-related markets, always betting on Trump / Republican outcomes. This has sparked a lot of online speculation, leading to misconceptions. Below, I aim to clarify these points.

Source: Arkham Intelligence

1. Can [...]

---

Outline:

(00:07) How four accounts have shifted the election probabilities narrative

(01:14) 1. Can a Group of Accounts Really Shift the Market This Much?

(02:09) 2. Is Trump Simply Gaining Momentum, and Did These Accounts Predict That?

(02:54) 3. Why Aren’t Sharp Traders Betting the Other Side to Normalize the Odds?

---

First published:
October 18th, 2024

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qt4vTGjj4mwAMwDsr/the-mysterious-trump-buyers-on-polymarket

---