If I say "the store is 500 meters away," is this strictly true? Strictly false? Either strictly true or strictly false, with probabilies of true or false summing to one? Fuzzily true, because the store is 500.1 meters away? My thesis is that it's strictly true or strictly false, with associated probabilities. Bear with me.

The 500 meter example is pretty hard to reason about numerically. I am hopeful that I can communicate my thoughts by starting with an example that is in some sense simpler.

A situation. Apologies for the AI generated art.

Is our conversational partner making a true statement or a false statement? What we're used to is starting with a prior over worlds, and then updating our belief based on observations- the man is underwater, the man is currently moving downwards. So our belief that the man is sinking should be pretty high. [...]

The original text contained 1 image which was described by AI.

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First published:
October 7th, 2024

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/22pLa3S2E9rDJ6Yjh/evaluating-the-truth-of-statements-in-a-world-of-ambiguous

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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“Evaluating the truth of statements in a world of ambiguous language.” by Hastings

LessWrong (30+ Karma)