Austan Goolsbee on the 'Golden Path' to a Soft Landing

This podcast episode discusses the concept of achieving a "golden path" for the economy, which represents a soft landing and the ideal outcome. It explores the possibilities and challenges of achieving this golden path, considering factors such as inflation, monetary policy, supply shocks, and market expectations. The episode emphasizes the need for caution when relying on historical analogies and highlights the unique conditions of the current economic landscape. Additionally, it delves into the role of inflation expectations, supply chain healing, labor supply, and external shocks in shaping inflation and economic outcomes. The importance of maintaining Fed credibility and anchoring inflation expectations is emphasized throughout the discussion. Overall, the episode provides insights into the complexities of managing inflation, the significance of monetary policy decisions, and the potential risks and opportunities in the current economic environment. Main points • Achieving the "golden path" for the economy, a desirable scenario of a soft landing, is discussed. • Historical analogies and the uniqueness of the current economic context are highlighted. • Factors such as inflation, monetary policy, supply shocks, and market expectations are explored. • The role of inflation expectations, supply chain healing, labor supply, and external shocks in shaping inflation and economic outcomes is discussed. • The importance of Fed credibility and anchoring inflation expectations is emphasized.