This podcast episode delves into the nuances of decision-making, asserting that poker serves as a more authentic model for real-world choices than chess due to its incorporation of luck and incomplete information. Peter and Annie share insights on the challenges humans face with probabilistic thinking, the importance of skill amidst randomness, and the value of frameworks like backcasting and premortems for effective decision-making. By understanding our cognitive biases and the variable dynamics of decision-making environments, listeners can improve their judgment and embrace uncertainty in their pursuits.
