Cliff notes:

You can practice forecasting on videogames you've never played before, to develop the muscles for "decision-relevant forecasting."
Turn based videogames work best. I recommend "Luck Be a Landlord", "Battle for Polytopia", or "Into the Breach."
Each turn, make as many Fatebook predictions as you can in 5 minutes, then actually make your decision(s) for the turn.
After 3 turns, instead of making "as many predictions as possible", switch to trying to come up with at least two mutually exclusive actions you might take this turn, and come up with predictions that would inform which action to take.

Don't forget to follow this up with practicing forecasting for decisions you're making in "real life", to improve transfer learning. And, watch out for accidentally just getting yourself addicted to videogames, if you weren't already in that boat.

This is pretty fun to do in groups and makes for [...]

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Outline:

(03:22) Choosing Games

(05:38) Some recommended games

(06:50) How to make predictions

(07:43) Phase 2: Decision-Relevant Predictions

(09:15) Interlude: Metastrategy Brainstorming

(10:43) Okay I basically get it vs Predict how masters think.

(11:54) Finally: Remember to connect this with Real Life practice

The original text contained 1 footnote which was omitted from this narration.

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First published:
August 31st, 2024

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hxhBT89wDBpWcuCW6/forecasting-one-shot-games

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“Forecasting One-Shot Games ” by Raemon

LessWrong (30+ Karma)