Today's episode features an in-depth discussion with discretionary global macro trader Asim Ghaffar, founder and CIO of AG Capital. Ghaffar shares his insights on the recent market volatility, including his views on the potential triggers behind the sell-off and the chances we have for a recession. Was it just a blip on the radar, algos deleveraging? He explains his discretionary macro trading approach, highlighting the importance of risk management, position sizing, and the psychological challenges of the business. Ghaffar also discusses the differences between his strategy and systematic trend following, as well as the unique opportunities smaller managers can pursue compared to large global macro funds. In this chat we also explore Ghaffar's personal journey into the industry, the challenges of starting a hedge fund, and his long-term outlook on markets, including his perspective on the role of gold in a portfolio.

Chapters:

00:00-02:01=Intro

02:02-11:14= What triggered the Sell-off? The Yen Carry trade? Or just algos gone wild…

11:15-22:35= The secret sauce to a long-term approach, algo moves and the mental games of trading

22:36-31:55= Discretionary vs Global Macro & the unsolvable puzzle or crack under the pressure

31:56-43:00= Psychology & Philosophy? The real head games of trading & sparks to start a hedge fund

43:01-49:50= The potential of a recession, who wants it? Fed rate cuts, the wealth effect, & investment vs trend

49:51-01:06:19= What’s beyond the horizon, staying out of the noise and focus on the fed

01:06:20-01:14:22= Commodity prices for discretionary trading & what’s with gold? Getting perspective…

From the episode:

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Follow along with Asim on LinkedIn and AG Capital's LinkedIn. For more information on AG Capital visit agcapital.fund

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Unpacking the Sell-Off! Awesome Insights from discretionary macro trader Asim Ghaffar

The Derivative