Seth Carpenter: China’s Impact on Global Growth

This podcast episode explores the evolving outlook for global economic growth, particularly after the first quarter of 2023. Key trends in the year-ahead outlook remain, but they are shifting. The spread between Asian growth and the rest of the world is now wider, with China's reopening having a more domestically-focused and services-oriented impact. Within developed market economies, the US forecast has been downgraded due to banking sector developments, while the Euro area has received an upgrade driven by stronger incoming data. The "EM vs DM" (Emerging Market vs Developed Market) theme continues, with China's growth contributing to a stronger outlook for Emerging Markets, while the US shows signs of softening. In Europe, stronger growth is expected, leading to a closer alignment between the ECB and Fed hiking cycles.