Martijn Rats: A Change in the Global Oil Market

This episode of the "Thoughts on the Market" podcast delves into the shifting narrative in the 2023 global oil market, challenging the initial expectation of a tightening market in the second half. China's crude imports and refinery runs have already reached record highs, leaving limited room for further growth. While Russian oil production has decreased, the decline is modest, making the anticipated supply deficit less pronounced. OPEC's production cuts and the EU's crude and product embargoes have limited impact, resulting in a revised projection of a near-balanced market in the second half, with a modest undersupply being replaced with a small surplus in 2024 due to waning seasonality and the end of the cuts. Brent oil prices are anticipated to remain within the recent $75-$85 per barrel range.