Mid-Year U.S. Dollar Outlook: An Important Driver for Returns

This podcast episode analyzes the challenges in predicting foreign exchange, particularly in the current environment characterized by consensus trades missing the mark and high market disagreement. The US dollar is forecasted to rally by approximately 5% by year-end, offering both carry demand and defensive qualities in a backdrop of slowed economic growth, low optimism, and high uncertainty. The defensive advantages of the US dollar are highlighted, including its low correlation with equity markets and favorable interest rates compared to other currencies, despite risks such as banking sector volatility, geopolitical concerns, and persisting inflation. The episode also addresses the vulnerability of currencies like the Australian dollar, Swedish krona, South African rand, and Chinese renminbi due to their sensitivity to growth and risk assets, emphasizing the significance of portfolio diversification with carry insurance hedges.