Global Economy: Fall Outlook for Rates and the Economy

This podcast episode dives into economic and market developments during summer 2022. It unpacks the rise in Treasury yields, examines the debate on the neutral rate of interest (r-star), and considers factors influencing the recent sell-off in Treasury yields. The speakers delve into narratives surrounding the sell-off, such as yield curve control, repatriation flows, and higher interest rates, but argue that these alone do not fully explain the trend and point to the market underestimating the Fed's commitment to keeping rates high. Experts also discuss their mid-year outlook, assessing what they got right and wrong, and update their forecast for Daniel yields.