The Markets: Pricing in the probability of a recession

This podcast episode analyzes the latest CPI data, which indicated a slowdown in inflation, particularly in the core inflation rate excluding food and energy. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation also showed a decline in April, and the senior loan officer opinion survey revealed tighter lending standards and weakened demand for commercial and industrial loans. This could impact GDP and consumer spending, with manufacturing companies and commercial real estate likely to be most affected. The Fed's upcoming meeting in June will be crucial, as the ongoing debt ceiling negotiations and uncertainty in the markets could influence their decision on interest rates.