China is More Likely to Blockade Taiwan Than Invade the Island in the Next Ten Years: A Debate with Mr. Lonnie Henley and Dr. Phil Saunders

Bonnie Lin from CSIS hosts a debate between Lonnie Henley and Dr. Phil Saunders on whether China is more likely to blockade Taiwan than invade it in the next 10 years. Henley argues that a blockade is more likely, outlining four scenarios: to punish Taiwan, to compel unification, as a first step to invasion, and after a failed invasion. He emphasizes the need to prepare for a close-in blockade, which the U.S. is currently ill-equipped to handle. Saunders counters that while a blockade is militarily less challenging for China, an invasion offers a more decisive outcome and could present the U.S. with a fait accompli. He acknowledges the PLA's efforts to improve its invasion capabilities. The discussion covers the potential for escalation, the role of U.S. allies, and the economic implications for China. An audience poll shows initial support for the blockade scenario, but shifts after the debate, highlighting the complexities of the issue.