This podcast episode discusses the state of the U.S. economy and the likelihood of a recession. While inflation remains a concern, leading indicators suggest a potential decline, supported by progress in rebalancing the labor market, moderated wage growth, and the easing of supply chain issues. The experts project a gradual reduction in inflation over the next few years and believe the Fed may consider the situation no longer a crisis once it reaches 2.5%. However, they caution that the resilience of consumer spending may weaken due to reduced transfer payments and the impact of inflation on purchasing power. The discussion highlights the need to monitor factors like banking stress and core services inflation while acknowledging the potential risks and opportunities in the current economic landscape.
