The latest in the Feedback Loop Rationality series.

Periodically, people (including me) try to operationalize predictions, or bets, and... it doesn't seem to help much.

I think I recently "got good" at making "actually useful predictions." I currently feel on-the-cusp of unlocking a host of related skills further down the rationality tech tree. This post will attempt to spell out some of the nuances of how I currently go about it, and paint a picture of why I think it's worth investing in.

The takeaway that feels most important to me is: it's way better to be "fluent" at operationalizing predictions, compared to "capable at all."

Previously, "making predictions" was something I did separately from my planning process. It was a slow, clunky process.

Nowadays, reasonably often I can integrate predictions into the planning process itself, because it feels lightweight. I'm better at quickly feeling-around for "what [...]

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Outline:

(02:00) Predicting Outcomes vs Comparing Plans

(04:14) Frictionless

(08:07) Feeling around for cruxiness

(08:41) Ideal Prerequisite:

(09:52) Frames 1: Costs and benefits

(10:32) Frame 2: Will this really help my deeper, longterm goals?

(11:12) Frame 3: Murphijitsu, and being dissatisfied with maybe

(12:38) The feeling of oh... thats cruxy

(13:46) Example

(13:49) The Fractal Strategy Workshop

(17:49) Tips and Tricks

(17:53) Practice via Videogames

(18:47) NOTES for Prediction-Followup

(19:33) Stuck on making a perfect prediction? Make an imperfect one

(19:40) (Relatedly: its okay to make fuzzy predictions that only make sense to you, but when doing so, try to make extremized ones)

(20:32) Make multiple predictions

(21:37) Takeaways

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First published:
July 10th, 2024

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wDpXshpakpYDcTtug/fluent-cruxy-predictions-1

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“Fluent, Cruxy Predictions” by Raemon

LessWrong (30+ Karma)