In Conversation with GROW - July 2024 Edition

This podcast episode explores the current state of China's property market, discussing improvements in the sales of second-hand housing while cautioning against premature conclusions about the market reaching its trough. The conversation also touches on government regulations on housing prices, challenges in new housing developments, and the divergence between leading indicators and home prices in Shanghai. The podcast then delves into the potential impact of expected changes in China on consumption and the public finance of the Chinese government, highlighting uncertainties and challenges in maintaining stability and economic growth. It also discusses the potential introduction of a consumption tax and its impact on the consumption sector, noting the weakening demand for luxury goods and dual-speed growth between high-end and low-end consumers. The impact of trade wars on luxury goods consumption is explored, emphasizing the negative effects and the burden borne by US consumers. The podcast concludes by discussing the relationship between the productivity cycle and precious metals, highlighting the historical correlation and suggesting a paradigm shift and positive trend for precious metals.